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Like many of you, I followed the U.S. elections closely, and the choices that were made were surprising, even worrying, given the clearly stated intentions. I shared some thoughts on this subject in a previous blog post. Today, despite the expected setbacks, I think we need to remain hopeful.
The result of the U.S. election and the rapid spread of disinformation are bringing an increased level of complexity to our work as an environmental organization. Nonetheless, Équiterre’s work remains critical, and I hope to be able to provide you with an encouraging perspective.
Potential setbacks
The election of Donald Trump is certainly going to have significant repercussions on our work to address climate change. In 2017, Trump announced that the United States was withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, a critical element in the climate change fight. By 2020, his administration had rolled back regulations on motor vehicle exhaust. This had a direct impact on Canadian motor vehicle regulations, because we apply essentially the same regulation as the U.S., and we therefore found ourselves exposed to increased levels of vehicle pollution. We are well aware of the consequences of this type of pollution on human health, and we know that there are indeed alternatives that exist.
All told, the first Trump administration sabotaged more than a hundred regulations that were designed to protect health, communities, water, air and nature. None of these rollbacks were done to reduce the cost of groceries, which hadn't become such an important political issue at the time. They were intended primarily to increase the profits of companies that were suddenly no longer required to comply with certain pollution-reduction measures. But yet, even after these environmental regulations were rolled back, prices for consumer goods did not fall. We must be wary of the sirens’ songs that carry the same promises today.
Isolation or ripple effect?
If Trump takes the same tack as during his first term - and there is every indication that he will - the United States, the second biggest polluter on the planet, could either quickly isolate itself, or it could drag other countries along in its wake. The rest of the world could benefit from a second Trump presidency in two ways: by accelerating the energy transition and leaving the U.S. behind in the race to innovate, or by increasing trade with similar regimes.
When Russia launched its military offensive in Ukraine in 2022, European countries immediately sought out alternatives to their dependence on Russian fossil fuels, as it posed a threat to their security. It is therefore possible that, despite the sabotage of environmental policies and the acceleration of hydrocarbon exploration and development, the remaining democracies will focus instead on renewable energy. Especially since the new Trump administration has announced its intention to isolate itself economically by imposing tariffs, also known as surtaxes, on anything that is not produced domestically.
Given these circumstances, how will Canada respond? There are opposing dynamics at play across the country. Quebec has proudly opted for renewable energy, while Alberta has chosen to sabotage renewable energy projects in order to reinforce its dependence on fossil fuels.
The environmental transition is profitable and crucial
We cannot underestimate the economic impact of the energy transition that’s currently underway. China, the world's biggest polluter, is accelerating its investments in green energy and consumer derivatives, notably electric vehicles. Indeed, 50% of the vehicles being sold in China are now electric or hybrid.
This energy transition is becoming a reality not because it's a trend, but because it’s necessary. Because the health of the world’s citizens, and more specifically the quality of our air and of our water, is at stake. Because the impacts of climate change are being felt more and more, and are becoming more and more costly. The United States, like many other countries, committed itself to this transition. Backpedalling would be extremely expensive. It would mean choosing not to compete in certain markets, and losing large numbers of jobs in promising sectors.
It's difficult to predict which trends will emerge in such a volatile geopolitical context. But one thing is certain: relaxing environmental regulations and policies will not mitigate the severity of hurricanes and floods, or the frequency of droughts. Communities will continue to suffer the consequences of increasingly devastating and costly extreme weather events. The cost of food and insurance premiums will continue to rise with the increased threat of climate change to farming and livestock activities. These are inescapable realities. We need solutions to the problems that directly affect people's lives.
